* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 64 60 55 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 64 60 55 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 31 31 28 27 34 41 48 49 51 52 55 46 SHEAR DIR 227 233 245 258 272 300 321 318 314 290 285 284 286 SST (C) 21.5 21.6 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 91 93 95 98 101 104 107 113 118 126 133 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.1 -56.8 -57.5 -57.4 -56.9 -54.3 -53.9 -56.1 -56.2 -55.4 -54.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 6 7 500-300 MB RH 33 36 34 37 32 28 24 23 28 27 20 15 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 9 7 3 2 -12 -30 -35 -17 2 13 -20 0 850 MB VORT 27 27 25 16 5 1 5 2 -9 -32 -25 -48 -47 LAND (KM) 2127 2063 1999 2005 2012 2120 2193 2317 2460 2350 2134 1861 1561 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.2 32.7 32.0 31.2 29.7 28.2 26.7 25.3 23.7 22.2 20.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 34.2 33.7 34.2 34.6 36.3 37.6 39.2 40.8 42.3 43.7 45.7 48.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -43. -43. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -31. -38. -44. -50. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -35. -49. -63. -76. -90.-101.-110. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -35. -49. -63. -76. -90.-101.-110. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 21.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)