* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 49 41 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 49 41 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 28 27 25 28 32 40 52 46 57 57 59 47 SHEAR DIR 232 242 248 270 281 307 313 316 306 298 299 300 304 SST (C) 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 90 91 92 94 96 99 103 105 107 110 112 114 117 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.9 -57.5 -56.1 -53.8 -54.2 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -55.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 32 33 38 37 32 24 24 23 23 25 23 20 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 7 6 3 -2 -18 -39 -46 -22 -9 -28 -15 -8 850 MB VORT 26 17 18 -1 -3 -3 7 -9 -10 -33 -40 -62 -70 LAND (KM) 2037 2009 1982 1990 2018 2041 2101 2200 2316 2403 2360 2250 2152 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.9 32.3 31.5 30.7 29.3 27.6 26.2 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 33.8 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.6 36.8 38.1 39.4 40.3 40.9 41.7 42.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 105/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 635 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -37. -39. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -28. -36. -43. -48. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -35. -49. -61. -74. -87. -98.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -35. -49. -61. -74. -87. -98.-105. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 22.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)