* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 48 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 48 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 28 32 31 39 46 46 48 55 58 53 49 SHEAR DIR 242 248 260 276 294 321 320 312 294 299 293 291 292 SST (C) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 90 92 94 96 98 100 104 106 108 111 115 120 125 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.2 -57.7 -57.0 -56.4 -54.4 -53.4 -55.2 -55.7 -56.1 -55.3 -54.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 500-300 MB RH 31 35 34 30 29 25 22 23 23 22 21 17 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 6 5 -3 -9 -36 -42 -2 -16 -19 -23 -11 -15 850 MB VORT 9 6 3 -5 -3 2 -4 -16 -20 -45 -45 -72 -47 LAND (KM) 2016 1994 1973 1989 2023 2094 2175 2282 2384 2377 2195 2038 1913 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 32.3 31.5 30.8 30.0 28.7 27.0 25.6 24.5 23.3 21.9 21.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.6 35.1 36.4 37.7 39.0 40.1 41.1 42.0 43.3 45.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 160/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 677 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -24. -29. -33. -37. -38. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -25. -32. -40. -47. -52. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -27. -40. -54. -67. -81. -93.-104.-111. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -17. -27. -40. -54. -67. -81. -93.-104.-111. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 22.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 28.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.02 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.04 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)