* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 55 50 40 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 55 50 40 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 27 26 31 32 39 44 42 55 50 59 61 64 SHEAR DIR 246 264 277 291 304 321 318 298 300 298 299 305 291 SST (C) 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 95 98 99 102 104 106 110 113 113 114 114 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.9 -57.4 -56.8 -55.9 -54.7 -55.0 -56.8 -56.1 -56.3 -55.9 -56.2 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 31 32 33 27 24 25 21 26 29 21 19 20 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -1 -5 -11 -14 -40 -29 -8 7 -3 0 -21 -26 850 MB VORT 0 -7 -5 -9 -8 -2 -27 -24 -30 -35 -53 -67 -73 LAND (KM) 1982 1967 1952 1987 2009 2105 2155 2251 2413 2315 2318 2280 2284 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 31.7 31.0 30.1 29.2 28.1 27.0 25.5 23.7 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.7 35.3 36.7 37.5 38.7 40.4 41.2 41.0 41.5 42.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ -7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -27. -31. -35. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -26. -33. -41. -49. -55. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -38. -50. -64. -78. -91.-102.-111. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -38. -50. -64. -78. -91.-102.-111. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.34 SST (C) : Value: 22.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.06 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)