* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 53 47 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 53 47 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 29 30 34 37 45 43 47 57 66 64 56 59 SHEAR DIR 271 281 293 312 318 319 314 298 299 286 297 297 287 SST (C) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 94 96 98 99 100 103 105 106 107 109 111 114 116 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.3 -56.6 -56.0 -55.3 -54.6 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.4 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 33 29 28 29 29 25 23 29 28 22 22 23 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -8 -13 -21 -34 -47 -2 -13 -26 12 -23 -17 3 850 MB VORT -15 -27 -13 -18 -22 -17 -43 -36 -26 -39 -71 -78 -99 LAND (KM) 1995 2040 2069 2117 2170 2255 2336 2379 2386 2404 2370 2274 2174 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 30.7 29.8 29.1 28.4 27.1 26.0 25.3 24.9 24.2 23.1 22.5 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.0 35.7 36.5 37.3 38.5 39.5 40.0 40.1 40.3 40.9 41.6 42.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 210/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 720 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -24. -31. -40. -49. -54. -59. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -45. -58. -73. -89.-105.-114.-122. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -45. -58. -73. -89.-105.-114.-122. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 23.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.05 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 54.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)