* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 57 52 46 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 57 52 46 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 28 30 34 36 46 44 55 57 61 64 59 59 SHEAR DIR 274 290 302 314 325 315 302 305 298 297 307 292 298 SST (C) 22.8 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 96 98 99 101 102 104 104 106 107 107 107 106 104 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.2 -55.4 -54.7 -54.3 -53.7 -55.4 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 -58.6 -58.3 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 500-300 MB RH 25 25 23 19 22 22 24 31 30 26 38 40 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -10 -9 -22 -40 -24 -18 -3 2 -4 26 -7 22 -16 850 MB VORT -13 -1 0 -4 5 -22 -27 -19 4 0 -30 -19 49 LAND (KM) 2036 2059 2089 2132 2181 2246 2243 2159 2005 1926 1890 1878 1908 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 29.9 29.1 28.4 27.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.4 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.6 36.2 36.9 37.6 38.5 38.5 37.7 36.2 35.4 35.0 34.8 34.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 215/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ -7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 680 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -34. -40. -47. -52. -55. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -32. -45. -59. -73. -85. -97.-104.-107. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -13. -19. -32. -45. -59. -73. -85. -97.-104.-107. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 23.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)