* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 51 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 51 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 29 33 35 43 43 50 59 69 73 68 63 N/A SHEAR DIR 296 314 307 320 318 315 298 293 295 303 295 298 9999 SST (C) 23.1 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 101 102 104 104 106 105 105 104 104 101 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.6 -54.7 -54.3 -53.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -55.6 -58.1 -58.2 -58.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 19 18 20 22 20 24 24 26 35 49 30 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -12 -19 -34 -32 -45 -20 4 53 33 -105 -2 -29 N/A 850 MB VORT -32 -21 -18 -12 -24 -40 -26 -4 -13 -90 -69 -55 N/A LAND (KM) 2108 2125 2149 2184 2224 2261 2245 2285 2338 2404 2416 2286 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 29.2 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.6 27.3 28.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.6 37.1 37.7 38.2 38.7 38.6 39.0 39.5 40.1 40.8 41.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ -7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 675 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -31. -40. -49. -55. -58. -60. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -21. -36. -51. -66. -83. -99.-112.-119.-123. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -21. -36. -51. -66. -83. -99.-112.-119.-123. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 23.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 54.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)