* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 49 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 49 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 34 35 44 46 44 59 67 75 72 71 72 N/A SHEAR DIR 316 323 332 323 319 298 293 294 304 302 289 295 9999 SST (C) 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.4 24.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 100 101 103 105 106 107 107 108 106 103 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 -55.1 -56.6 -57.7 -57.3 -59.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 21 25 28 23 22 27 21 29 45 36 26 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -22 -38 -23 -14 -20 13 43 32 -39 -1 12 -21 N/A 850 MB VORT -19 -26 -23 -26 -30 -16 6 0 -53 -102 -52 -56 N/A LAND (KM) 2201 2243 2287 2324 2365 2430 2457 2525 2467 2394 2270 2153 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.6 28.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.9 38.5 39.1 39.6 40.4 40.7 41.4 42.2 43.1 44.0 44.7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -26. -36. -46. -54. -60. -64. -66. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -23. -37. -52. -68. -86.-101.-114.-122.-125. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -16. -23. -37. -52. -68. -86.-101.-114.-122.-125. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.12 SST (C) : Value: 23.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 52.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)