* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 55 48 41 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 55 48 41 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 35 41 45 43 47 55 63 68 68 67 66 N/A SHEAR DIR 317 330 321 320 317 304 298 293 305 296 288 295 9999 SST (C) 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 101 103 104 106 107 109 110 110 111 111 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -57.2 -57.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 N/A 500-300 MB RH 22 26 27 25 23 26 22 16 26 33 20 26 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -32 -32 -23 -18 -21 -17 2 60 -5 2 -15 -11 N/A 850 MB VORT -5 -2 -3 -14 -14 -8 -7 -12 -70 -79 -54 -58 N/A LAND (KM) 2264 2296 2333 2358 2385 2417 2414 2455 2440 2432 2431 2363 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 27.9 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.6 25.4 26.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.2 38.8 39.3 39.7 40.0 40.4 40.4 40.8 41.5 42.4 43.4 44.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -30. -41. -51. -60. -67. -71. -73. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -24. -38. -54. -71. -88.-104.-118.-126.-130. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -17. -24. -38. -54. -71. -88.-104.-118.-126.-130. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.07 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 37.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.10 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)