* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EPSILON 12/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 42 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 42 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 42 46 45 45 50 56 59 58 64 60 59 N/A SHEAR DIR 332 321 318 313 303 298 288 295 305 293 291 295 9999 SST (C) 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 103 105 106 107 110 111 112 114 114 117 118 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -56.9 -56.4 -56.4 -57.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 N/A 500-300 MB RH 25 29 25 23 22 24 19 16 25 22 21 24 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -26 -31 -14 -23 -13 -14 1 -38 -21 -18 -16 21 N/A 850 MB VORT -10 -4 -6 -13 -8 -14 -18 -43 -74 -79 -79 -80 N/A LAND (KM) 2308 2325 2348 2356 2366 2383 2392 2345 2274 2237 2214 2199 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.7 22.5 22.8 23.2 24.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.2 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.7 41.6 42.8 44.1 45.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 230/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -72 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -37. -47. -56. -63. -68. -71. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -41. -56. -72. -87.-100.-113.-119.-123. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -13. -20. -27. -41. -56. -72. -87.-100.-113.-119.-123. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 54.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)