* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 48 53 57 57 62 62 67 57 41 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 311 301 302 299 280 290 308 299 304 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 105 105 105 104 104 102 100 98 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.3 -58.7 -57.4 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 25 26 26 29 25 18 40 48 38 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -19 -14 -13 12 10 -1 15 -28 17 -14 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -12 -20 -22 -15 6 27 27 -73 28 100 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2393 2375 2358 2303 2250 2203 2183 2169 2202 2223 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.6 28.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.9 39.7 39.2 38.6 38.1 37.8 37.5 37.6 37.5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 753 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -84 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -6. -14. -20. -23. -29. -38. -45. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -12. -7. -3. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -23. -32. -41. -51. -58. -57. -61. -65. -70. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -13. -18. -24. -33. -42. -52. -60. -59. -62. -65. -73. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 53.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.47 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)