* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 47 44 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 47 44 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 42 41 44 48 52 65 81 78 88 89 58 52 58 SHEAR DIR 258 253 249 244 241 239 245 254 265 288 303 293 285 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 24.6 25.0 23.2 22.1 22.3 22.8 24.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 127 122 107 110 98 92 93 96 103 113 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -57.0 -58.0 -58.9 -60.1 -60.7 -59.4 -59.6 -59.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 6 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 500-300 MB RH 14 15 19 22 28 33 28 31 43 46 37 39 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 -1 0 -7 8 21 2 16 10 -10 -2 9 -6 850 MB VORT -27 -29 -51 -78 -99 -96 -122 -144 -160 -172 -181 -118 -71 LAND (KM) 183 155 104 64 4 119 112 542 1096 1394 1637 1936 2024 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 25.2 28.0 31.1 33.7 33.7 32.1 29.6 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 81.1 82.1 82.7 83.2 82.6 79.3 72.7 63.1 54.7 50.5 48.8 48.2 HEAT CONTENT 59 46 36 28 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -14. -23. -33. -41. -46. -49. -51. -54. -59. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -33. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -11. -24. -40. -56. -68. -79. -88. -96.-102. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -3. -6. -12. -25. -42. -57. -69. -81. -89. -96.-104. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 3.24 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)