* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 59 55 49 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 59 55 49 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 41 42 43 46 59 59 59 62 67 64 70 71 SHEAR DIR 253 250 244 239 233 234 241 255 246 254 268 269 265 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.2 24.9 25.3 25.3 24.0 23.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 137 133 124 112 110 113 113 103 98 93 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -56.3 -57.1 -57.2 -57.0 -57.2 -58.6 -58.4 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 14 14 14 18 27 35 34 37 35 28 32 49 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 5 -1 11 28 12 -9 22 -22 -14 75 -7 850 MB VORT -31 -64 -84 -80 -75 -116 -115 -92 -7 -17 0 20 66 LAND (KM) 202 214 226 190 108 21 128 -19 94 284 544 551 599 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.5 20.9 22.7 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.6 29.4 31.0 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.6 82.2 83.0 83.8 84.2 82.4 80.7 79.2 77.3 75.1 72.7 70.3 HEAT CONTENT 53 50 49 47 42 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 637 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -8. -13. -19. -32. -44. -53. -60. -66. -69. -70. -71. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -10. -25. -43. -59. -72. -86. -95.-102.-106. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -5. -11. -26. -44. -61. -74. -88. -96.-102.-109. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 78.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.47 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 3.01 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)