* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 61 55 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 61 55 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 44 45 47 52 58 60 58 62 67 65 68 84 79 SHEAR DIR 245 240 234 235 234 241 253 254 247 271 287 272 260 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.0 24.8 24.6 25.2 25.0 23.8 23.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 129 126 119 109 107 112 110 102 98 92 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -56.7 -56.9 -58.6 -57.5 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 6 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 16 19 22 30 37 38 37 39 35 22 46 51 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 -4 9 12 2 36 -23 5 25 -32 -58 5 0 850 MB VORT -42 -71 -79 -77 -88 -134 -114 -55 -2 -8 -31 -1 40 LAND (KM) 198 167 104 27 36 116 149 -66 121 363 494 476 598 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.7 24.9 26.2 27.5 28.9 30.4 32.2 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.2 83.9 84.3 84.7 84.1 82.7 80.9 79.0 76.9 74.9 72.4 69.6 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 42 32 22 1 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 735 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -17. -25. -40. -51. -59. -66. -71. -74. -75. -75. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -10. -17. -36. -54. -70. -84. -97.-106.-113.-118. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -4. -10. -19. -38. -56. -72. -85.-100.-107.-114.-120. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 49.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 67.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.91 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)