* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 59 50 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 59 47 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 48 48 54 57 53 52 60 61 56 60 69 65 68 SHEAR DIR 238 234 231 233 239 252 255 245 269 279 289 286 273 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 25.8 24.6 24.5 24.9 25.2 23.5 22.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 126 117 107 106 110 112 100 95 92 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -57.3 -57.0 -57.0 -57.6 -58.7 -58.6 -58.0 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 27 29 35 38 38 36 45 39 24 29 45 43 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 17 7 6 -1 12 56 -46 -12 78 6 15 850 MB VORT -71 -72 -88 -113 -115 -116 -70 -6 -46 -61 -60 -53 -54 LAND (KM) 22 27 33 -4 41 164 120 -29 0 286 598 710 985 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.9 22.3 24.1 25.3 26.1 26.9 28.2 30.0 31.9 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.3 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.3 82.7 81.3 80.1 77.5 73.6 69.5 65.3 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 26 20 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 688 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -20. -23. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -12. -21. -29. -43. -54. -63. -68. -72. -75. -75. -73. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -20. -28. -46. -64. -80. -93.-105.-114.-119.-122. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -11. -20. -30. -48. -67. -82. -94.-107.-115.-120.-125. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 52.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.90 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)