* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 55 46 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 55 46 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 56 59 57 51 58 61 55 60 67 71 67 58 SHEAR DIR 233 231 234 241 247 257 250 262 279 283 290 276 270 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 24.9 23.8 24.2 25.1 24.3 23.0 22.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 122 120 110 102 104 111 105 97 92 92 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -57.4 -57.6 -57.3 -58.3 -58.5 -58.4 -57.6 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 36 35 34 35 42 44 32 20 43 44 46 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 11 7 -5 -9 29 15 -39 7 0 4 8 850 MB VORT -72 -91 -118 -131 -129 -97 -9 -21 -41 -58 -56 -40 -60 LAND (KM) 50 62 79 119 171 236 72 -62 183 490 542 791 886 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.3 23.9 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.4 29.9 31.6 33.6 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 84.9 85.0 85.0 84.9 84.0 82.7 80.9 78.7 75.8 72.1 67.6 62.8 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 8 2 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 76 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -13. -22. -29. -43. -54. -61. -66. -69. -72. -70. -68. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -24. -33. -51. -69. -84. -96.-107.-115.-120.-122. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -15. -24. -34. -53. -72. -86. -98.-109.-117.-120.-125. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 54.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)