* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 12/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 77 50 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 77 50 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 60 60 55 56 59 53 46 50 46 55 53 56 63 SHEAR DIR 273 274 275 272 276 291 289 292 296 283 280 268 259 SST (C) 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.0 21.7 22.0 21.2 20.7 22.1 22.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 88 87 87 88 89 84 81 84 76 71 86 84 93 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.6 -56.3 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.3 -54.2 -54.9 -55.6 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 38 35 33 35 33 27 25 19 23 25 22 19 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -27 -11 0 5 5 0 -7 -10 -6 30 -3 12 16 850 MB VORT -93 -102 -103 -103 -96 -88 -74 -50 -41 -5 37 48 26 LAND (KM) 1736 1819 1911 1967 1913 1625 1210 952 668 300 -3 -119 -299 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.2 23.4 22.9 22.3 21.8 21.4 21.5 22.7 23.9 24.3 24.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 137.9 136.8 135.4 134.0 129.7 124.7 121.4 118.7 115.1 110.7 105.8 100.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 522 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -97 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -7. -16. -25. -33. -48. -58. -64. -68. -71. -70. -69. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR -12. -24. -35. -45. -60. -67. -73. -79. -85. -92. -97.-104. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -2. -4. -8. -11. -19. -25. -30. -32. -32. -30. -31. -30. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -22. -48. -74. -98.-139.-166.-188.-202.-214.-219.-225.-229. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -23. -50. -77.-102.-142.-168.-188.-200.-210.-214.-221.-228. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 58.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 22.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: -12.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 33.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 1.57 Prob of RI= 1.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)