* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * CHRIS 12/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 87 72 58 45 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 87 72 58 45 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 58 56 49 39 37 35 31 34 32 30 36 33 34 SHEAR DIR 292 300 308 305 294 296 280 280 288 265 273 276 285 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 120 123 126 132 135 135 134 134 135 138 137 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 18 16 14 11 9 11 11 9 10 12 11 15 8 MO FLX (M/S/D) -87 -17 -11 0 0 -4 2 -1 0 10 0 -8 -4 850 MB VORT -234 -205 -201 -198 -186 -175 -198 -207 -181 -168 -142 -118 -117 LAND (KM) 1984 1718 1452 1343 1242 1251 1313 1403 1578 1817 2090 2268 2054 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.1 23.2 22.2 21.2 19.7 18.4 17.0 15.6 14.5 14.0 14.3 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 179.0 176.5 173.9 172.9 171.8 171.6 171.8 172.1 173.2 175.1 177.7 179.7 177.8 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 24 CX,CY: 24/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 1079 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 331 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -8. -20. -31. -41. -56. -65. -70. -74. -76. -80. -78. -74. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -22. -30. -36. -41. -45. -46. -46. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -10. -12. -10. -8. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 13. 11. 15. 15. 12. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -13. -28. -42. -55. -82.-105.-126.-146.-165.-173.-178.-183. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -13. -28. -42. -55. -82.-105.-126.-146.-165.-173.-178.-183. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 12/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 48.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 19.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 38.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 0.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.99 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)