* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 12/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 42 41 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 42 41 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 33 37 45 51 50 49 43 44 54 58 49 52 SHEAR DIR 278 283 283 285 283 276 279 278 275 270 268 277 282 SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 103 102 102 102 102 102 104 104 104 104 104 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.5 -57.9 -57.8 -57.7 -57.9 -57.2 -57.8 -59.3 -59.4 -58.1 -57.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 52 42 44 40 35 33 29 26 30 40 40 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 4 0 -7 -6 18 -1 -14 8 7 15 -12 -12 850 MB VORT 34 23 21 20 15 -2 -26 -45 -54 -58 -58 -63 -73 LAND (KM) 2021 2083 2146 2192 2238 2319 2420 2530 2483 2395 2349 2300 2218 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.2 38.6 39.4 40.4 41.5 42.8 43.8 44.4 45.1 46.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 721 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -13. -21. -29. -38. -48. -55. -61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -12. -21. -30. -40. -49. -57. -63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 12/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.76 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)