* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 12/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 46 44 42 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 44 42 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 33 37 45 49 50 48 41 42 53 45 44 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 283 281 286 283 281 279 277 280 270 274 282 292 9999 SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 101 100 100 100 102 104 104 104 102 100 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -58.2 -58.0 -58.0 -58.4 -57.6 -57.7 -59.6 -59.6 -58.5 -57.8 -56.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 42 44 41 36 32 29 26 28 41 40 37 36 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 0 3 1 9 -14 0 9 16 -13 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 22 21 21 18 4 -21 -53 -77 -84 -64 -70 -86 N/A LAND (KM) 2076 2121 2166 2226 2287 2466 2478 2321 2176 2056 1996 1969 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.6 28.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.4 37.8 38.4 39.0 40.8 42.8 44.8 46.5 48.0 49.0 49.7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 751 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -31. -34. -38. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -10. -18. -26. -35. -44. -51. -57. -61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. -1. -3. -10. -19. -27. -36. -46. -52. -59. -63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 12/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)