* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 12/31/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 36 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 36 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 45 45 47 48 40 38 41 46 42 36 38 N/A SHEAR DIR 278 289 287 279 277 278 281 273 268 276 297 290 9999 SST (C) 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 100 100 100 100 101 102 104 103 102 100 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -58.1 -58.1 -58.3 -58.0 -57.5 -59.0 -60.6 -59.9 -58.4 -57.4 -55.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 41 40 35 31 33 31 28 35 43 37 28 26 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -1 7 -3 9 -10 -5 3 25 -5 -14 -12 N/A 850 MB VORT 5 1 6 -3 -10 -29 -44 -64 -71 -62 -84 -119 N/A LAND (KM) 2113 2159 2206 2262 2318 2478 2467 2394 2270 2165 2120 2098 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.6 28.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.8 38.2 38.8 39.3 40.9 42.5 44.1 45.5 46.8 47.6 48.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 744 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -21. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -27. -30. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -25. -31. -38. -45. -50. -56. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -9. -13. -21. -28. -34. -41. -47. -52. -56. -60. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 12/31/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 1.95 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)