* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 12/31/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 44 39 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 44 39 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 45 46 45 46 47 39 36 43 39 37 35 39 N/A SHEAR DIR 282 283 279 272 275 273 279 269 275 286 299 289 9999 SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 101 100 99 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.6 -59.0 -58.3 -57.7 -57.6 -59.6 -60.2 -59.3 -58.3 -57.6 -57.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 40 35 32 32 33 32 32 40 40 37 29 34 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 1 7 21 -10 -4 9 16 -26 -10 -13 N/A 850 MB VORT 2 9 -6 -12 -17 -27 -49 -48 -46 -52 -73 -114 N/A LAND (KM) 2146 2187 2228 2278 2328 2458 2474 2398 2321 2237 2146 2061 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.2 28.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.0 38.4 38.9 39.4 40.7 42.0 43.3 44.4 45.5 46.1 46.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 705 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -22. -25. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -33. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -28. -35. -42. -48. -54. -60. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -11. -16. -24. -32. -39. -45. -51. -56. -61. -64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 12/31/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 1.95 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)