* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 12/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 44 51 47 45 41 38 40 37 36 32 42 44 48 SHEAR DIR 272 274 280 277 277 279 267 275 279 290 293 291 299 SST (C) 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 100 100 100 101 100 100 99 98 97 96 94 200 MB T (C) -59.1 -58.1 -57.8 -57.7 -57.7 -59.6 -61.2 -60.5 -59.9 -58.6 -56.9 -56.5 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 500-300 MB RH 30 30 34 34 32 35 37 33 31 33 31 37 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 8 16 3 -6 -5 0 11 -2 -3 -5 1 -16 850 MB VORT -7 -13 -15 -10 -23 -40 -35 -52 -65 -89 -125 -129 -117 LAND (KM) 2193 2243 2293 2348 2403 2504 2488 2435 2418 2366 2310 2255 2187 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.3 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 38.1 38.6 39.1 39.7 40.2 41.2 41.9 42.2 42.1 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 713 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -25. -28. -32. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -45. -51. -58. -63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -13. -18. -26. -32. -38. -43. -47. -53. -58. -65. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 12/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 1.78 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)