* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/01/06 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 35 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 35 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 52 48 46 41 41 39 42 34 32 37 43 50 N/A SHEAR DIR 275 279 277 276 277 271 267 279 288 291 289 296 9999 SST (C) 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 101 101 101 101 100 100 99 98 97 95 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -57.8 -57.7 -57.6 -57.9 -60.2 -60.9 -60.3 -59.5 -57.7 -56.5 -57.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 N/A 500-300 MB RH 31 34 35 32 30 36 36 32 33 33 36 49 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 18 11 -3 -7 -3 11 -1 -5 -7 -8 -7 N/A 850 MB VORT -10 -11 -6 -19 -25 -27 -37 -52 -72 -100 -137 -106 N/A LAND (KM) 2202 2247 2292 2347 2402 2493 2502 2421 2335 2252 2155 2078 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.6 29.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.7 40.2 41.1 41.8 42.6 43.3 43.9 44.3 44.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 692 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -32. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -54. -60. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -15. -20. -27. -34. -39. -43. -49. -55. -60. -64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/01/06 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 1.63 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)