* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/01/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 33 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 33 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 44 43 45 43 43 39 35 40 44 50 48 N/A SHEAR DIR 277 277 275 276 274 265 275 281 289 289 284 297 9999 SST (C) 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.4 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 101 101 101 101 102 102 102 101 99 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.7 -58.8 -60.6 -60.0 -59.3 -56.8 -56.6 -56.9 -56.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 36 36 33 32 34 39 33 35 35 32 44 50 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 19 10 -3 -15 -14 0 22 -4 -6 1 6 -11 N/A 850 MB VORT -12 -12 -16 -19 -30 -28 -45 -48 -68 -95 -136 -84 N/A LAND (KM) 2223 2272 2322 2366 2411 2502 2505 2429 2359 2269 2178 2095 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 38.9 39.4 39.9 40.3 41.2 42.3 43.3 44.2 45.1 45.7 46.0 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 701 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -36. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -13. -20. -26. -32. -40. -48. -57. -64. -67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -12. -16. -23. -29. -35. -42. -51. -59. -64. -68. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/01/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 1.89 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)