* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/01/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 37 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 37 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 45 43 48 43 43 48 35 36 44 47 49 46 N/A SHEAR DIR 275 273 272 277 268 261 276 283 286 282 292 299 9999 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 101 99 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -58.2 -59.1 -60.5 -60.0 -58.6 -56.6 -56.1 -55.3 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 31 30 28 29 31 34 32 37 36 37 56 49 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 -1 -21 -20 -7 7 12 -3 -7 0 11 -1 N/A 850 MB VORT -3 -10 -9 -15 -17 -27 -37 -44 -64 -95 -117 -73 N/A LAND (KM) 2228 2272 2317 2367 2417 2519 2521 2449 2367 2283 2183 2103 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.0 39.4 39.9 40.4 41.4 42.4 43.4 44.3 45.0 45.5 45.7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 687 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -34. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -14. -21. -27. -34. -42. -51. -60. -67. -70. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -12. -17. -25. -31. -37. -44. -53. -62. -67. -71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/01/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 1.78 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)