* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/01/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 37 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 37 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 45 50 48 46 48 46 44 45 58 63 55 49 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 270 268 263 262 267 278 283 283 284 292 303 9999 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.1 23.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 103 103 103 103 104 104 105 105 104 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -57.2 -58.2 -59.4 -59.9 -59.1 -56.8 -55.6 -55.7 -56.4 -57.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 27 28 28 29 33 33 33 32 31 36 47 51 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -16 -14 1 13 10 -1 -1 7 8 0 -3 N/A 850 MB VORT -5 -10 -15 -18 -22 -43 -48 -53 -69 -90 -102 -60 N/A LAND (KM) 2206 2250 2294 2345 2396 2508 2476 2438 2350 2270 2236 2215 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.3 38.8 39.2 39.7 40.2 41.3 42.3 43.3 44.3 45.3 45.9 46.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -25. -31. -38. -43. -47. -52. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -31. -41. -53. -65. -75. -81. -85. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -12. -17. -26. -34. -43. -55. -67. -76. -82. -86. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/01/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 47.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 2.07 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)