* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/02/06 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 52 49 47 45 50 45 47 56 63 56 46 43 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 268 263 263 261 272 282 283 280 282 297 306 9999 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 104 104 104 105 106 107 107 106 105 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.3 -58.3 -59.4 -59.4 -59.1 -57.5 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -54.6 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 24 26 30 32 32 32 29 35 49 50 39 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -11 -12 -3 6 17 13 -3 -11 -4 10 -1 -26 N/A 850 MB VORT -13 -15 -14 -18 -21 -35 -42 -47 -60 -60 -80 -102 N/A LAND (KM) 2213 2263 2313 2368 2424 2434 2398 2366 2287 2205 2140 2107 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 38.9 39.4 40.0 40.5 41.6 42.5 43.6 44.7 45.7 46.6 47.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -29. -38. -45. -49. -52. -56. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -34. -46. -59. -70. -79. -86. -90. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -12. -17. -26. -35. -48. -61. -72. -81. -87. -92. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/02/06 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 48.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.05 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)