* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/02/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 36 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 36 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 46 48 50 49 50 57 69 69 57 50 42 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 262 259 259 266 276 284 284 278 291 299 308 9999 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 105 105 106 106 109 111 113 114 113 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -58.6 -59.3 -59.1 -58.9 -58.2 -55.4 -55.3 -54.3 -53.5 -53.8 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 24 24 26 30 30 33 30 33 45 45 36 29 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -4 5 19 16 -7 -13 -13 14 -2 -31 -40 N/A 850 MB VORT -9 -8 -9 -8 -31 -38 -36 -54 -56 -61 -66 -103 N/A LAND (KM) 2313 2337 2362 2428 2390 2315 2239 2152 2019 1898 1817 1773 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.7 39.9 40.6 41.2 42.8 44.2 45.8 47.2 48.6 49.6 50.4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 713 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -35. -46. -53. -58. -61. -65. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -34. -49. -64. -76. -85. -90. -95. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -35. -50. -65. -78. -86. -92. -97. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/02/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 48.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.30 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 2.21 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)