* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/02/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 47 45 50 46 49 50 69 68 61 50 48 43 N/A SHEAR DIR 264 261 264 270 272 288 287 282 287 296 306 300 9999 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 103 104 104 106 110 112 113 112 110 108 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -59.1 -58.8 -58.7 -58.6 -56.7 -55.5 -55.5 -54.1 -53.6 -55.0 -55.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 23 29 32 34 33 33 29 37 48 38 27 19 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 11 15 24 15 -10 -31 -19 21 -13 -34 -5 N/A 850 MB VORT -12 -16 -11 -25 -33 -32 -31 -47 -44 -49 -79 -116 N/A LAND (KM) 2413 2430 2398 2363 2330 2248 2137 1964 1807 1669 1589 1548 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.9 41.4 42.0 42.5 44.0 45.9 47.7 49.4 51.0 52.1 52.9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -10. -16. -26. -38. -47. -53. -57. -60. -65. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -36. -51. -65. -76. -84. -90. -94. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -39. -54. -67. -78. -85. -90. -96. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/02/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 47.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.02 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 1.87 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)