* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/02/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 47 51 49 49 50 54 71 74 54 50 51 51 N/A SHEAR DIR 257 260 265 271 277 285 286 276 288 296 308 309 9999 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 105 106 108 110 111 113 114 112 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -58.3 -58.0 -58.1 -57.9 -56.6 -55.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 -55.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 29 31 31 29 30 31 33 41 50 37 26 23 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 16 22 11 -7 -20 0 -2 -6 -14 -14 -26 N/A 850 MB VORT -15 -11 -21 -31 -38 -31 -31 -26 -40 -58 -103 -122 N/A LAND (KM) 2407 2358 2310 2270 2232 2170 2119 2035 1913 1807 1722 1672 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.3 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.8 24.4 25.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.4 41.8 42.5 43.1 44.4 45.5 46.8 48.1 49.3 50.4 51.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 751 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -30. -44. -53. -59. -63. -67. -72. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -41. -57. -70. -80. -88. -95.-100. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -12. -18. -29. -44. -61. -72. -83. -90. -96.-102. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/02/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 49.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.30 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 1.73 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)