* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/03/06 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 41 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 41 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 46 44 44 44 57 64 62 53 49 50 51 N/A SHEAR DIR 258 264 267 272 283 289 283 279 282 301 310 310 9999 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.1 24.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 105 106 107 110 111 112 113 111 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.9 -58.8 -58.5 -58.0 -56.6 -55.9 -55.3 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -55.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A 500-300 MB RH 29 30 32 33 29 28 35 41 44 34 26 22 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 25 25 8 -5 -21 -24 35 -10 -31 -6 -17 N/A 850 MB VORT -11 -23 -29 -35 -29 -22 -22 -29 -26 -46 -91 -120 N/A LAND (KM) 2401 2359 2318 2286 2256 2200 2139 2032 1921 1807 1724 1676 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.7 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.5 42.0 42.6 43.2 44.4 45.6 46.9 48.1 49.4 50.5 51.3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -9. -12. -20. -32. -43. -50. -56. -60. -64. -67. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -24. -39. -54. -66. -77. -87. -96.-100. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -14. -26. -41. -56. -67. -79. -89. -97.-102. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/03/06 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 2.41 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)