* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/03/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 50 45 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 50 45 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 47 42 41 44 49 61 72 51 49 38 44 51 42 SHEAR DIR 263 265 265 276 284 289 276 283 299 317 331 335 339 SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 104 105 105 107 108 107 106 104 101 99 96 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.8 -58.5 -58.1 -57.3 -56.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -55.9 -56.6 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 500-300 MB RH 30 29 33 30 29 30 39 43 42 37 28 24 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 23 24 18 6 -3 -26 -14 34 -31 -31 -4 -38 -17 850 MB VORT -13 -16 -14 -8 -7 -10 -11 -29 -44 -78 -114 -151 -191 LAND (KM) 2380 2354 2327 2296 2266 2209 2197 2180 2198 2217 2243 2194 2111 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.7 24.5 25.4 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.6 42.0 42.5 43.0 44.2 45.3 45.7 45.8 45.9 46.0 45.9 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -14. -25. -38. -47. -52. -55. -56. -58. -58. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -28. -44. -59. -70. -81. -90.-100.-106. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -10. -16. -30. -47. -61. -72. -83. -92.-101.-107. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/03/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 2.34 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)