* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/03/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 46 39 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 46 39 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 47 46 51 53 58 66 61 45 40 42 45 40 33 SHEAR DIR 261 268 274 283 290 282 284 288 322 332 334 341 336 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 106 106 107 108 107 104 101 100 102 103 104 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.9 -57.5 -56.9 -56.6 -55.9 -55.5 -56.1 -55.7 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 30 31 30 30 30 35 44 47 42 34 24 17 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 36 6 4 -7 -29 -3 31 18 -32 -11 -21 -21 -10 850 MB VORT -21 -21 -11 -11 -9 -11 -25 -31 -49 -80 -99 -138 -161 LAND (KM) 2304 2273 2242 2220 2199 2196 2173 2187 2243 2235 2212 2176 2122 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.1 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.4 42.9 43.5 44.0 44.9 45.8 46.1 46.0 46.0 46.2 46.5 47.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 727 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -24. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -42. -48. -51. -53. -55. -56. -55. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -20. -36. -52. -63. -72. -82. -90. -97.-102. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -9. -16. -23. -40. -56. -66. -75. -84. -92. -98.-103. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/03/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 51.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.02 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)