* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/03/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 45 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 45 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 41 48 53 53 60 67 49 44 40 57 57 49 35 SHEAR DIR 266 275 284 289 286 277 284 298 320 327 336 335 335 SST (C) 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.6 22.3 21.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 106 107 107 106 102 98 95 93 91 89 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.3 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -55.1 -55.9 -55.4 -55.8 -57.1 -57.8 -58.7 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 32 30 30 28 31 43 48 46 44 35 29 35 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 3 -9 -21 -28 4 31 -19 -30 -23 -31 0 -3 850 MB VORT -15 -6 -9 -6 -9 -13 -31 -27 -71 -122 -172 -207 -227 LAND (KM) 2307 2279 2251 2227 2205 2226 2205 2212 2125 1985 1886 1778 1706 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.2 24.0 25.3 26.8 28.3 29.6 30.6 31.7 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.7 44.3 45.1 45.7 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.9 45.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 745 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -12. -18. -30. -39. -45. -47. -50. -52. -53. -52. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -16. -23. -40. -55. -65. -74. -85. -95.-102.-106. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -17. -25. -43. -57. -67. -77. -87. -97.-103.-107. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/03/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 51.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.02 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 2.04 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)