* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/04/06 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 57 54 58 60 63 61 47 45 48 52 41 28 23 SHEAR DIR 270 284 286 287 284 282 287 310 327 333 335 330 284 SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.4 23.9 23.2 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 106 107 108 108 106 102 98 96 96 95 94 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 -56.1 -55.5 -56.0 -55.7 -55.9 -57.1 -57.6 -57.2 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 27 26 24 27 33 39 47 41 37 25 21 21 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 -6 -25 -32 -5 35 26 -30 -11 -21 -13 -1 7 850 MB VORT -4 -7 -3 -7 -11 -18 -20 -40 -90 -131 -146 -193 -147 LAND (KM) 2263 2232 2202 2204 2206 2165 2135 2143 2105 2019 1985 1935 1899 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 22.9 22.8 23.1 23.4 24.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.0 43.5 44.1 44.7 45.8 46.5 47.0 47.4 47.9 48.5 48.9 49.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 689 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -9. -15. -21. -34. -41. -47. -50. -52. -53. -52. -50. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -20. -28. -45. -57. -68. -78. -89. -97.-102.-104. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -13. -22. -32. -48. -61. -71. -81. -91. -99.-103.-106. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/04/06 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 58.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 1.79 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)