* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/04/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 39 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 39 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 61 62 68 72 77 59 50 44 49 45 33 28 46 SHEAR DIR 280 281 281 282 277 282 293 313 328 332 320 274 251 SST (C) 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 110 110 110 109 106 103 98 95 94 92 91 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -54.9 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -56.0 -57.6 -57.8 -57.6 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 26 22 20 25 29 42 45 38 31 24 24 34 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -23 -30 -15 -4 44 -12 -38 -16 -32 0 5 28 850 MB VORT 4 6 9 1 -5 -20 -25 -57 -98 -142 -159 -140 -136 LAND (KM) 2170 2128 2085 2083 2083 2125 2153 2134 2073 1940 1884 1823 1757 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 21.9 21.6 22.0 22.3 23.9 25.2 26.7 28.4 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 43.2 43.5 44.3 45.0 46.1 46.2 47.0 48.5 50.1 51.3 52.4 52.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 210/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 677 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -11. -19. -28. -41. -50. -56. -59. -61. -60. -58. -57. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -24. -35. -53. -67. -79. -90. -99.-107.-110.-112. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -16. -27. -39. -57. -71. -82. -92.-102.-109.-111.-114. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/04/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 67.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 1.80 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)