* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/04/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 43 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 64 68 72 75 69 56 50 47 48 26 26 54 58 SHEAR DIR 280 280 279 275 280 281 302 320 327 321 258 231 244 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.0 25.1 24.8 24.4 23.8 23.2 22.5 22.0 21.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 110 111 109 106 102 98 94 92 91 89 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.4 -56.9 -57.8 -57.7 -57.6 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 20 22 25 30 36 42 42 38 24 23 35 44 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -19 -16 -24 13 2 21 8 -33 -28 -10 -1 41 3 850 MB VORT 3 1 2 -6 -11 -21 -32 -63 -91 -138 -106 -119 -140 LAND (KM) 2104 2070 2038 2059 2061 2047 2049 2008 1930 1837 1750 1590 1466 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.9 21.8 22.4 22.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 44.3 44.9 45.6 46.3 47.1 47.6 48.7 50.3 52.3 54.5 56.3 57.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 230/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 695 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -82 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -17. -24. -35. -43. -48. -52. -52. -50. -50. -52. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -25. -35. -50. -62. -73. -84. -90. -94. -98.-101. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -16. -27. -37. -53. -65. -76. -86. -92. -95. -98.-103. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/04/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 69.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.11 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 60.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.30 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 1.81 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)