* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/04/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 67 69 69 65 55 49 41 48 38 20 36 59 55 SHEAR DIR 279 280 276 278 281 289 315 321 327 298 237 238 258 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.2 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 111 111 110 109 104 101 98 94 92 90 88 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.7 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -56.1 -57.6 -58.1 -58.1 -58.3 -59.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 24 24 31 37 45 45 40 30 21 24 36 35 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -17 -12 16 14 31 1 -35 -11 -21 5 8 39 4 850 MB VORT -3 -6 -8 -10 -26 -18 -41 -76 -103 -140 -114 -119 -188 LAND (KM) 2041 2041 2040 2062 2045 2006 1960 1870 1763 1719 1727 1569 1454 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.9 23.5 25.1 26.5 27.5 28.2 29.2 30.5 31.7 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.2 45.7 46.3 46.8 47.7 48.8 50.4 52.2 53.7 54.8 55.7 55.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 723 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -8. -13. -18. -26. -31. -37. -40. -39. -39. -41. -43. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -30. -42. -53. -64. -72. -77. -80. -84. -88. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -16. -24. -32. -45. -56. -66. -75. -79. -81. -85. -90. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/04/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 1.72 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)