* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/05/06 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 70 71 66 54 51 46 46 49 24 33 53 54 44 SHEAR DIR 278 274 278 282 282 309 317 317 309 246 227 245 265 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.0 23.2 22.4 21.9 21.4 21.0 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 112 111 110 108 103 98 94 91 89 88 87 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -55.9 -57.2 -58.0 -57.8 -57.2 -58.3 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 25 34 37 45 46 41 34 23 24 38 41 45 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -33 -1 19 16 11 -5 -14 -21 4 9 21 0 -13 850 MB VORT -8 -10 -14 -27 -21 -23 -61 -91 -140 -113 -93 -149 -153 LAND (KM) 1995 2013 1991 1977 1963 1888 1793 1747 1734 1703 1526 1372 1272 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.7 26.9 28.2 29.4 30.7 31.9 33.1 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.4 47.1 47.6 48.0 49.2 50.9 52.4 53.7 54.9 56.2 57.0 57.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 729 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -24. -26. -26. -28. -31. -34. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -33. -42. -52. -59. -62. -65. -68. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -19. -25. -35. -44. -54. -61. -64. -66. -69. -74. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/05/06 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 62.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.14 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 1.90 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)