* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/05/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 69 65 54 53 55 47 51 40 31 49 59 56 47 SHEAR DIR 274 281 282 284 290 318 309 311 262 241 246 262 270 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.1 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 113 113 111 109 104 100 98 96 95 93 91 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.1 -55.2 -56.3 -57.2 -57.5 -56.6 -57.1 -57.3 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 34 36 44 42 38 37 23 24 34 42 37 41 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 17 15 0 27 23 -44 -33 3 -15 33 4 -7 -21 850 MB VORT -1 -11 -21 -15 -19 -39 -80 -114 -112 -100 -146 -170 -168 LAND (KM) 1961 1949 1915 1887 1863 1764 1662 1566 1481 1463 1477 1504 1496 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.6 26.7 27.6 28.3 29.2 29.9 30.5 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.4 48.0 48.5 49.0 50.5 52.3 54.2 56.1 57.6 58.5 59.1 58.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 775 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. -28. -33. -38. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -9. -6. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -28. -37. -47. -53. -58. -62. -67. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -16. -21. -30. -39. -49. -55. -60. -63. -68. -75. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/05/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 59.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.51 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 1.97 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)