* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/05/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 68 60 56 56 55 48 48 33 42 58 59 48 46 SHEAR DIR 279 283 283 290 308 317 313 296 247 236 253 266 266 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 24.7 24.0 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 113 113 112 108 103 99 97 95 92 90 89 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -55.6 -56.9 -57.7 -57.8 -57.9 -58.6 -57.8 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 3 3 500-300 MB RH 33 39 43 39 37 29 23 26 42 41 44 49 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 21 5 26 28 -20 1 -29 17 10 20 10 -12 -8 850 MB VORT -1 -21 -17 -18 -21 -60 -78 -124 -107 -115 -177 -189 -188 LAND (KM) 1932 1918 1873 1828 1787 1682 1595 1520 1483 1494 1538 1461 1404 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.6 26.7 27.7 28.8 29.8 30.7 31.4 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 47.9 48.5 49.2 49.8 51.4 53.1 54.9 56.7 58.0 58.8 59.0 58.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 761 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -27. -31. -35. -38. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -22. -26. -29. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -30. -40. -48. -56. -65. -72. -79. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. -33. -42. -50. -58. -66. -72. -81. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/05/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 58.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.46 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.36 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.37 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)