* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/05/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 62 58 54 55 49 50 39 36 50 62 57 51 44 SHEAR DIR 284 287 290 306 317 313 301 258 239 239 259 284 275 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.0 23.4 22.4 21.7 21.3 21.0 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 114 113 111 108 103 99 94 91 89 88 86 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -55.3 -56.5 -57.4 -57.8 -57.5 -57.9 -58.9 -58.0 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 38 42 38 35 35 24 23 38 46 37 47 46 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 21 21 -13 -37 -29 21 6 -1 26 -10 -48 3 850 MB VORT -23 -18 -19 -17 -27 -55 -93 -88 -94 -104 -178 -169 -113 LAND (KM) 1916 1863 1813 1777 1743 1615 1441 1451 1573 1582 1483 1405 1355 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.7 26.7 28.1 29.7 31.1 32.4 33.5 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.3 52.2 55.0 56.3 56.5 56.7 56.1 55.0 53.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 783 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -30. -34. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -25. -26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -28. -36. -45. -53. -61. -68. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -31. -39. -47. -56. -62. -68. -75. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/05/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 55.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.46 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 2.20 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)