* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOXTROT 01/05/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 62 58 61 58 48 46 43 48 55 67 63 62 62 SHEAR DIR 278 277 277 282 285 280 276 254 252 246 255 255 266 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 125 126 127 128 131 132 132 132 134 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 14 13 11 10 11 12 17 24 33 38 44 45 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 -18 -34 -1 -27 -19 -5 8 7 14 19 7 -19 850 MB VORT 5 -5 -14 -27 -41 -28 -28 -38 -14 -28 -2 -15 4 LAND (KM) 1138 1137 1104 1022 940 807 721 597 427 233 55 68 2 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 19.4 18.8 18.2 17.6 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.0 54.9 55.4 55.8 57.1 58.7 60.2 61.8 63.7 65.9 68.1 69.9 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 15 18 22 27 29 25 29 32 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 838 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -56 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 1.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -29. -41. -52. -66. -78. -88. -96. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -28. -40. -52. -65. -80. -92.-100.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -11. -17. -28. -41. -53. -66. -82. -93.-101.-108. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOXTROT 1/05/06 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 57.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.37 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 94.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 55.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 1.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)