* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/06/06 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 59 55 53 54 52 49 45 56 60 52 50 53 63 SHEAR DIR 294 305 313 315 310 303 264 236 234 263 284 277 258 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.6 23.6 22.4 21.2 20.6 20.4 20.2 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 113 112 107 100 94 88 86 86 85 84 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -57.2 -57.9 -57.8 -58.0 -58.1 -56.5 -56.7 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 37 34 31 22 19 25 43 54 45 46 37 34 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 -21 -32 -9 -32 11 -10 -13 52 -56 1 -11 10 850 MB VORT 2 -1 -22 -43 -49 -80 -85 -79 -114 -177 -154 -111 -81 LAND (KM) 1808 1747 1688 1590 1497 1365 1393 1540 1424 1234 1115 1044 946 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.8 27.8 30.0 32.3 34.4 36.0 37.3 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 49.9 50.6 51.8 52.9 55.2 56.8 57.5 57.6 57.3 55.9 53.9 51.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 766 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -22. -23. -25. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -25. -26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -37. -46. -54. -62. -68. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -9. -14. -22. -30. -39. -48. -56. -63. -69. -75. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/06/06 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 54.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.17 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 78.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.47 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 2.07 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)