* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ZETA 01/06/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 56 54 53 55 53 39 54 63 60 51 49 47 56 SHEAR DIR 302 312 315 310 313 286 245 230 248 270 276 270 254 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.2 22.7 21.6 21.2 20.9 20.6 20.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 113 111 104 95 90 88 87 86 86 86 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.4 -55.8 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -58.6 -57.5 -58.7 -58.0 -56.6 -56.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 28 28 25 18 20 34 52 45 39 43 36 31 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -22 -51 -5 -17 -49 -25 25 12 29 -32 -17 10 0 850 MB VORT -2 -24 -35 -47 -58 -87 -82 -76 -144 -173 -172 -169 -124 LAND (KM) 1763 1690 1619 1511 1412 1342 1523 1553 1449 1348 1278 1233 1172 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.7 26.6 29.4 31.3 32.6 33.8 34.9 35.6 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.4 51.2 52.6 53.9 56.2 56.9 56.9 56.4 55.8 54.5 52.9 50.7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 716 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -85 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -21. -25. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -30. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -27. -35. -44. -50. -58. -65. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -29. -37. -45. -52. -59. -66. -74. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ZETA 1/06/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 54.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.17 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.51 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.98 Scaled RI index= 2.29 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)