* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOXTROT 01/06/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 55 51 47 47 43 43 53 63 63 52 55 55 67 SHEAR DIR 290 292 285 282 277 255 240 244 254 262 271 272 265 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.3 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 126 127 126 124 121 119 117 113 106 99 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -57.0 -55.7 -54.5 -55.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 12 12 13 16 21 34 47 46 43 47 49 54 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -40 -29 -7 4 -12 8 5 4 14 0 0 6 16 850 MB VORT -11 -18 -21 -22 -32 -78 -42 -75 -97 -112 -121 -99 -90 LAND (KM) 1027 936 848 742 636 498 471 597 648 676 704 780 957 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 20.6 19.9 19.8 19.6 20.4 21.7 23.3 24.0 24.5 25.1 26.2 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.1 57.8 58.8 59.8 61.5 63.0 63.4 63.9 64.9 66.3 67.0 66.4 HEAT CONTENT 1 6 12 15 16 14 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 886 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -124 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -28. -38. -44. -50. -56. -62. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -7. -7. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -31. -42. -56. -66. -76. -84. -89. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -32. -43. -57. -68. -77. -84. -91. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOXTROT 1/06/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 48.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 93.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.61 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 49.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 1.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.67 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)