* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEST 01/13/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 77 77 76 73 75 70 75 53 35 23 32 35 43 SHEAR DIR 282 281 283 286 296 308 301 292 270 255 291 322 320 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.4 24.8 24.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 128 129 129 128 126 120 114 109 109 114 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.4 -56.0 -55.8 -54.8 -53.7 -54.8 -55.5 -57.1 -57.7 -57.7 -57.9 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 3 3 4 500-300 MB RH 31 39 46 50 47 29 34 42 52 55 58 49 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 8 7 -14 -6 -15 -27 20 35 22 17 -1 -22 850 MB VORT -37 -33 -46 -49 -43 -53 -78 -68 -48 -41 -43 -24 -24 LAND (KM) 601 574 561 575 596 528 447 481 757 1047 1188 1156 909 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.3 19.1 21.5 23.8 25.2 25.3 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.3 59.1 59.6 60.1 61.0 61.6 61.2 59.3 57.5 56.9 57.4 59.5 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 20 22 24 24 21 16 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -13. -20. -34. -51. -67. -75. -79. -81. -83. -85. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -19. -35. -53. -69. -76. -79. -82. -82. -83. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -7. -12. -20. -35. -54. -70. -77. -81. -82. -83. -86. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEST 1/13/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 75.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.09 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.92 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)