* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EP-TEST 01/13/06 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 36 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 36 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 44 43 44 47 56 73 60 73 89 80 69 60 SHEAR DIR 253 238 228 224 222 225 248 262 275 291 304 307 304 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.4 22.9 20.5 18.4 15.9 16.9 20.1 20.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 125 117 110 94 69 64 64 64 65 73 80 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.4 -56.5 -57.3 -57.8 -57.8 -57.4 -56.3 -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 -58.4 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 500-300 MB RH 70 70 70 72 73 69 62 52 54 58 63 51 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 20 -2 -7 1 11 -13 2 9 10 7 8 -4 -6 850 MB VORT -105 -106 -86 -69 -65 -24 13 -41 -1 -107 -167 -185 -221 LAND (KM) 722 655 595 533 412 83 -207 -219 -239 -124 511 986 1107 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.1 19.2 22.2 25.9 29.4 32.6 34.8 34.1 32.2 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.2 110.3 109.7 106.3 98.5 89.2 79.3 70.6 66.0 65.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 828 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 124 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -28. -43. -62. -78. -92.-104. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 0. -10. -27. -48. -73. -95.-111.-125. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 11. 7. -4. -22. -45. -70. -93.-109.-123. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EP-TEST 1/13/06 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)