* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST CP992006 10/28/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 33 37 45 47 46 50 50 48 47 50 53 48 34 SHEAR DIR 267 266 260 263 269 267 273 279 289 289 291 276 263 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.2 24.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 141 140 137 137 136 132 127 118 108 97 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -54.2 -56.2 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 53 54 59 54 47 46 42 45 48 52 55 54 52 850 MB VORT 27 13 5 -6 -15 -18 -46 -32 -34 -56 -69 -50 -62 200 MB DIV 24 34 24 12 4 -16 -34 -28 -29 6 40 41 68 LAND (KM) 593 508 424 364 304 202 188 231 311 463 764 1223 1742 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 19.1 20.8 23.0 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 156.3 156.5 156.6 156.6 156.5 155.9 155.0 153.7 152.3 150.4 147.6 143.6 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 13 18 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 811 (MEAN=600) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: .0 (MEAN=64.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -27. -36. -43. -49. -56. -60. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -18. -25. -32. INVEST 10/28/06 18 UTC ** 2006 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): .0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .3/ .4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .0/ .0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .2/ .1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: .9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .4/ .3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: .0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .0/ .0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 4% is .4 times the sample mean(11%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11%) * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST CP992006 10/28/06 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 25 25 26 26 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS D-SHIP EXPER 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR OPER 33 37 45 47 46 50 50 48 47 50 53 48 34 SHEAR EXPER 27 32 40 45 46 50 54 55 50 46 55 51 22 GFS VORTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG.